Monday, October 23, 2017

Amateur Economist

If tax cuts are actually made by congress in spite of near full employment:
Buy gold because the dollar will lose value.
Interest rates will climb if the Federal Reserve senses an inflationary trend over 2 percent.
If the interest rate rises so will the cost of financing the federal debt further increasing the budget deficits.
Unless corrected, the big boys in fund management will continue to receive rate loop holes that you could drive a truck through. (see carried interest)
Tax cuts for consumers, so called pump priming, in a recessionary, high unemployment economy, is meant to stimulate growth and not necessarily increase government revenue.
Tax cuts on businesses is meant to stimulate business growth and lower unemployment but, as in Ohio, the business owner often pockets the tax saving for personal purposes. This results in a reduction in tax revenue and a reduction of essential government services.
Both Kennedy and Reagan primed the pump but then increased taxes when the economy overheated.
Clinton raised taxed to balance the budget and to build a rainy day fund for Bush II
Bush II kept his tax cuts beyond the use by date and the debt and deficits soared and contributed to the great crash of 2008.
Supply side, trickle down has not worked for the mainly because those befitting the most pocketed the saving rather than invest in new plant and equipment. Ergo we see the great rift valley of wealth distribution we see today.
One upside is that U.S. goods will be more affordable in foreign markets.
These are personal observations and opinions based on 50 years of interested study. I welcome any and all counter opinions.
Paul Hunter (contact

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